Aggregate figures reported by Victoria Police / Taskforce Lunar via mainstream media (2025–26). Mapped incidents are the subset individually documented with a citable source.
Left rail toggles incident types; click any pin or feed item for sources. Pins coloured by type (bar-wars venue attacks in pink), fatal events ringed, and they fade & shrink with age as you scrub the timeline. Locations are exact only where a source confirms an address, otherwise suburb-level.
Black Market Prices, Tax & Crime Over Time
one timeline since 2015 - lines = excise & ABS tobacco CPI · dots = illicit street quotes · dashed = trend through quotes · red bars = attacks/month · diamonds = policy · drag to zoomBlue line = tobacco excise $/stick (statutory - step-flat Mar/Sep). Green = Tobacco CPI (ABS) - official retail tobacco price index only; quarterly, step-flat (full 2015 covered). Orange dots = illicit cigarette street quotes; dashed orange = trend through quotes. Purple dots = illicit vape quotes; dashed purple = trend. Red bars = mapped violent attacks/month. Diamonds = policy events (excise · vape · reform · enforcement).
Sources (every series):Excise $/stick - ATO tariff 5.1 / historical item 501; Mar & Sep AWOTE indexation; +12.5% p.a. to Sep 2020; +5% p.a. Sep 2023–2025. data.gov.au Historical Excise Rates · ATO tobacco rates · ABF Customs Notices per indexation · Treasury FOI 3812. Tobacco CPI - ABS 6401.0 quarterly expenditure class Tobacco (series A2326791X), eight capital cities; includes Dec-2014 so all of 2015 is covered (history available from 1972). ABS CPI release (quarterly workbook 6401018.xlsx; index ref ≈ Sep-2025 = 100). Illicit pack (street quotes - not a market average): 2015 $16 - Vice (Sydney Chinatown) · 2018 ~$5 - AACS / news roundup · 2024 $19 - World Customs Journal · 2025 $14 - Drug Policy Australia · 2025 ~$20 - Tobacco Asia (surge) · 2025 ~$15 - Northerner (USD street quotes) · 2025 $12 - Tobacco Asia (dominates) · 2026 ~$15 - Man of Many · 2026 ~$18 ($11–25 range) - MedicalXpress · May-Oct 2026 $10–20 per 20-pack (state quotes) - Senate inquiry (QLD), ABC (NSW test buys), ABC, The Age (Melbourne), WAtoday (Perth). Illicit vape (device, street / enforcement quotes): 2021 $25 - Vice (vape black market) · 2022 $20–30 - MedicalXpress (teen vapes) · 2023 <$20 - 1News · 2024 ~$25 street - The Conversation · 2024 ~$30 seizure valuation - Health/TGA seizure media · 2025 $45–60 - Notable Vaper (ban crackdown) · 2026 $60 knockoff - Notable Vaper (prices) · May 2026 $60, up from $18 (QLD) - Senate inquiry. Attacks / month - this site’s mapped, sourced incidents (not a national police tally). Policy diamonds - ATO/Treasury/TGA/ABF notices (each row in the Policy timeline table has a source ↗).
Legal vs Illicit Tobacco Market Share
Illicit share of tobacco consumed (national). 2015–22 KPMG, 2023–24 FTI Consulting (both industry-funded, published by Philip Morris). 2025 = ABS experimental estimate for 2024-25 (69%, June 2026), on the same scope and period as the government ITEC Commissioner’s 50–60% range; part of the jump from 2024 reflects that change of source, as the ABS wastewater method puts illicit use well above the industry series. Independent academic estimates run lower. Grey dotted band = a ROUGH approximation of the illicit share once illegal vapes (near-100% illicit) are counted, anchored to the ABS experimental wastewater estimate (~80% of all nicotine, 2025) - deliberately shaded, not a hard line, to flag it as an estimate and a broader measure than tobacco alone.
The vaping surge (~90%+ illegal)
Share of Australians aged 14+ currently vaping - AIHW National Drug Strategy Household Survey. Different measure to the tobacco chart above (people, not market volume), shown separately. ~90%+ of vapes are sold outside the legal/prescription channel (nicotine vapes prescription-only since Oct 2021; disposable imports banned Jan 2024). Early 2024–25 data (Cancer Council “Generation Vape”) shows the rise levelling off after the July-2024 reforms; next full survey (2025–26) pending.
Tobacco Excise & Policy Timeline
| 2026-10-05 | other | Queensland legal cigarette sales up 55% after crackdown source ↗ |
| 2026-09-09 | reform | Victoria's 90-day closure powers and landlord offence commence source ↗ |
| 2026-09-03 | other | Opposition pledges 80% cut to tobacco excise source ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | reform | Federal Combatting Illicit Tobacco Act penalties commence source ↗ |
| 2026-07-22 | reform | Tasmania closure powers and higher penalties commence source ↗ |
| 2026-07-20 | enforcement | ABF reports record 2,300 tonnes of illicit tobacco seized in 2025-26 source ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | reform | NSW landlord offence for illicit tobacco premises commences source ↗ |
| 2026-06-03 | other | ABS: 80% of nicotine consumed in 2025 came from illicit sources source ↗ |
| 2026-05-13 | reform | WA closure orders and $21m maximum fines commence source ↗ |
| 2026-05-12 | excise | 2026-27 Budget writes tobacco excise revenue down again source ↗ |
| 2026-02-01 | reform | Victoria starts enforcing tobacco retail licensing source ↗ |
| 2025-12-07 | enforcement | Queensland Operation Major closes 148 stores in 10 days source ↗ |
| 2025-11-24 | reform | Queensland 90-day closure powers and landlord offence begin source ↗ |
| 2025-11-03 | reform | NSW closure orders and higher penalties commence source ↗ |
| 2025-10-28 | other | Illicit tobacco share surges; excise-revenue collapse and freeze debate source ↗ |
| 2025-09-01 | excise | Final 5% surcharge + indexation increase (to $1.49832/stick) source ↗ |
| 2024-10-01 | vape | Pharmacy sales without prescription for low-strength vapes source ↗ |
| 2024-10-01 | vape | Nicotine pouches confirmed prescription-only source ↗ |
| 2024-09-11 | enforcement | Vape seizure milestone: 2m+ vapes since 1 July, >$155m street value source ↗ |
| 2024-07-01 | vape | Vaping Reforms Act commences - pharmacy-only supply model source ↗ |
| 2024-03-01 | vape | Import ban extended to all non-therapeutic vapes; personal importation ends source ↗ |
| 2024-01-01 | vape | Import ban on disposable vapes source ↗ |
| 2023-09-01 | excise | First 5% surcharge + indexation increase (to $1.24335/stick) source ↗ |
| 2023-05-09 | excise | 2023-24 Budget: extra 5%/yr excise for 3 years from Sept 2023 source ↗ |
| 2021-10-01 | vape | Nicotine vaping products become prescription-only source ↗ |
| 2020-09-01 | excise | Final 12.5% excise increase (to ~$1.10/stick) source ↗ |
| 2019-09-01 | excise | 12.5% excise increase (to $0.93653/stick) source ↗ |
| 2019-07-01 | reform | Tobacco taxing point moved to the border source ↗ |
| 2018-07-01 | enforcement | Illicit Tobacco Taskforce established source ↗ |
| 2017-09-01 | excise | 12.5% excise increase (to $0.69858/stick) source ↗ |
| 2016-09-01 | excise | 12.5% excise increase (to $0.61054/stick) source ↗ |
| 2016-05-03 | excise | 2016-17 Budget: four annual 12.5% excise increases legislated (2017-2020) source ↗ |
Alcohol Tax, Prices & Historical Bar-Wars Attacks
no separate federal “tax on bars” - product excise (packaged beer / spirits / draught keg rates) + state liquor licences · pink bars = bar-wars hospitality attacks · dashed = policy · drag to zoomTax on bars? No Commonwealth levy that only hits pubs. Product excise (ATO) + state liquor licensing. Freeze vs increase: The 2025–27 freeze is draught/keg only (ATO subitems 1.2, 1.6, 1.11 - full-strength draught held at $43.39/L alc from Feb 2025). Packaged beer and spirits still rise every Feb/Aug (e.g. Feb 2026: packaged heavy $63.75, spirits $107.99). If a line keeps climbing after Aug 2025, it is not the frozen class. Orange = packaged beer excise. Brown = draught excise (frozen). Purple = spirits excise. Wine = 29% WET (not plotted). Green = Beer CPI (ABS) - official retail beer price index (tobacco not included). Red = Spirits CPI (ABS). Both quarterly, step-flat (full 2015 covered via Q4-2014 hold + 2015 quarters); index ref ≈ Sep-2025 = 100. Dashed slate / sky = VIC / NSW licence bases (base only; pre-2026 estimates). Pink bars = bar-wars attacks/month.
Sources (every rate step): Beer & spirits $/L alc - data.gov.au Historical Excise Rates (tariff items 110 / 111 / 302; file updated Jul 2026) · ATO current alcohol rates (notes freeze on subitems 1.2, 1.6, 1.11; CPI factor 1.019 from 2 Feb 2026) · Freeze policy - PM media release 1 Mar 2025 · Treasury legislation 8 Oct 2025 · Budget note: packaged beer excluded. Licence bases - vic.gov.au 2026–27 fees · L&GNSW 2026 annual fees. Beer / Spirits CPI - ABS 6401.0 quarterly expenditure classes Beer (A2328861F, from 1972) and Spirits (A2328951K, from 1980), eight capital cities; chart includes Dec-2014 so all of 2015 is covered - ABS CPI release (quarterly workbook 6401018.xlsx; index ref ≈ Sep-2025 = 100). Not an excise rate; not mixed with tobacco. Policy markers link to official pages in the chart tooltip.
About the Tobacco Wars Data Project
Disclaimer. Everything here is drawn entirely from widely available public information. All individual names, gang and group affiliations, ethnicity descriptors and other identifying details have been removed. Nothing on this site is intended to identify, accuse or target any person or group, and figures are indicative and may be incomplete.
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