Aggregate figures reported by Victoria Police / Taskforce Lunar via mainstream media (2025–26). Mapped incidents are the subset individually documented with a citable source.
Left rail toggles incident types; click any pin or feed item for sources. Pins coloured by type (bar-wars venue attacks in pink), fatal events ringed, and they fade & shrink with age as you scrub the timeline. Locations are exact only where a source confirms an address, otherwise suburb-level.
Prices, tax & incidents over time
one timeline since 2015 - lines = excise & ABS tobacco CPI · dots = illicit street quotes · dashed = trend through quotes · red bars = attacks/month · diamonds = policy · drag to zoomBlue line = tobacco excise $/stick (statutory - step-flat Mar/Sep). Green = Tobacco CPI (ABS) - official retail tobacco price index only; quarterly, step-flat (full 2015 covered). Orange dots = illicit cigarette street quotes; dashed orange = trend through quotes. Purple dots = illicit vape quotes; dashed purple = trend. Red bars = mapped violent attacks/month. Diamonds = policy events (excise · vape · reform · enforcement).
Sources (every series):Excise $/stick - ATO tariff 5.1 / historical item 501; Mar & Sep AWOTE indexation; +12.5% p.a. to Sep 2020; +5% p.a. Sep 2023–2025. data.gov.au Historical Excise Rates · ATO tobacco rates · ABF Customs Notices per indexation · Treasury FOI 3812. Tobacco CPI - ABS 6401.0 quarterly expenditure class Tobacco (series A2326791X), eight capital cities; includes Dec-2014 so all of 2015 is covered (history available from 1972). ABS CPI release (quarterly workbook 6401018.xlsx; index ref ≈ Sep-2025 = 100). Illicit pack (street quotes - not a market average): 2015 $16 - Vice (Sydney Chinatown) · 2018 ~$5 - AACS / news roundup · 2024 $19 - World Customs Journal · 2025 $14 - Drug Policy Australia · 2025 ~$20 - Tobacco Asia (surge) · 2025 ~$15 - Northerner (USD street quotes) · 2025 $12 - Tobacco Asia (dominates) · 2026 ~$15 - Man of Many · 2026 ~$18 ($11–25 range) - MedicalXpress. Illicit vape (device, street / enforcement quotes): 2021 $25 - Vice (vape black market) · 2022 $20–30 - MedicalXpress (teen vapes) · 2023 <$20 - 1News · 2024 ~$25 street - The Conversation · 2024 ~$30 seizure valuation - Health/TGA seizure media · 2025 $45–60 - Notable Vaper (ban crackdown) · 2026 $60 knockoff - Notable Vaper (prices). Attacks / month - this site’s mapped, sourced incidents (not a national police tally). Policy diamonds - ATO/Treasury/TGA/ABF notices (each row in the Policy timeline table has a source ↗).
Legal vs illicit share of tobacco consumed
Illicit share of tobacco consumed (national). 2015–22 KPMG, 2023–24 FTI Consulting (both industry-funded, published by Philip Morris), 2025 = midpoint of the government ITEC Commissioner’s 50–60% range; 2026 extrapolated. Independent academic estimates run lower. Grey dotted band = a ROUGH approximation of the illicit share once illegal vapes (near-100% illicit) are counted, anchored to the ABS experimental wastewater estimate (~80% of all nicotine, 2025) - deliberately shaded, not a hard line, to flag it as an estimate and a broader measure than tobacco alone.
The vaping surge (~90%+ illegal)
Share of Australians aged 14+ currently vaping - AIHW National Drug Strategy Household Survey. Different measure to the tobacco chart above (people, not market volume), shown separately. ~90%+ of vapes are sold outside the legal/prescription channel (nicotine vapes prescription-only since Oct 2021; disposable imports banned Jan 2024). Early 2024–25 data (Cancer Council “Generation Vape”) shows the rise levelling off after the July-2024 reforms; next full survey (2025–26) pending.
Policy timeline
| 2025-10-28 | other | Illicit tobacco share surges; excise-revenue collapse and freeze debate source ↗ |
| 2025-09-01 | excise | Final 5% surcharge + indexation increase (to $1.49832/stick) source ↗ |
| 2024-10-01 | vape | Pharmacy sales without prescription for low-strength vapes source ↗ |
| 2024-10-01 | vape | Nicotine pouches confirmed prescription-only source ↗ |
| 2024-09-11 | enforcement | Vape seizure milestone: 2m+ vapes since 1 July, >$155m street value source ↗ |
| 2024-07-01 | vape | Vaping Reforms Act commences - pharmacy-only supply model source ↗ |
| 2024-03-01 | vape | Import ban extended to all non-therapeutic vapes; personal importation ends source ↗ |
| 2024-01-01 | vape | Import ban on disposable vapes source ↗ |
| 2023-09-01 | excise | First 5% surcharge + indexation increase (to $1.24335/stick) source ↗ |
| 2023-05-09 | excise | 2023-24 Budget: extra 5%/yr excise for 3 years from Sept 2023 source ↗ |
| 2021-10-01 | vape | Nicotine vaping products become prescription-only source ↗ |
| 2020-09-01 | excise | Final 12.5% excise increase (to ~$1.10/stick) source ↗ |
| 2019-09-01 | excise | 12.5% excise increase (to $0.93653/stick) source ↗ |
| 2019-07-01 | reform | Tobacco taxing point moved to the border source ↗ |
| 2018-07-01 | enforcement | Illicit Tobacco Taskforce established source ↗ |
| 2017-09-01 | excise | 12.5% excise increase (to $0.69858/stick) source ↗ |
| 2016-09-01 | excise | 12.5% excise increase (to $0.61054/stick) source ↗ |
| 2016-05-03 | excise | 2016-17 Budget: four annual 12.5% excise increases legislated (2017-2020) source ↗ |
Alcohol tax, prices & bar-wars attacks
no separate federal “tax on bars” - product excise (packaged beer / spirits / draught keg rates) + state liquor licences · pink bars = bar-wars hospitality attacks · dashed = policy · drag to zoomTax on bars? No Commonwealth levy that only hits pubs. Product excise (ATO) + state liquor licensing. Freeze vs increase: The 2025–27 freeze is draught/keg only (ATO subitems 1.2, 1.6, 1.11 - full-strength draught held at $43.39/L alc from Feb 2025). Packaged beer and spirits still rise every Feb/Aug (e.g. Feb 2026: packaged heavy $63.75, spirits $107.99). If a line keeps climbing after Aug 2025, it is not the frozen class. Orange = packaged beer excise. Brown = draught excise (frozen). Purple = spirits excise. Wine = 29% WET (not plotted). Green = Beer CPI (ABS) - official retail beer price index (tobacco not included). Red = Spirits CPI (ABS). Both quarterly, step-flat (full 2015 covered via Q4-2014 hold + 2015 quarters); index ref ≈ Sep-2025 = 100. Dashed slate / sky = VIC / NSW licence bases (base only; pre-2026 estimates). Pink bars = bar-wars attacks/month.
Sources (every rate step): Beer & spirits $/L alc - data.gov.au Historical Excise Rates (tariff items 110 / 111 / 302; file updated Jul 2026) · ATO current alcohol rates (notes freeze on subitems 1.2, 1.6, 1.11; CPI factor 1.019 from 2 Feb 2026) · Freeze policy - PM media release 1 Mar 2025 · Treasury legislation 8 Oct 2025 · Budget note: packaged beer excluded. Licence bases - vic.gov.au 2026–27 fees · L&GNSW 2026 annual fees. Beer / Spirits CPI - ABS 6401.0 quarterly expenditure classes Beer (A2328861F, from 1972) and Spirits (A2328951K, from 1980), eight capital cities; chart includes Dec-2014 so all of 2015 is covered - ABS CPI release (quarterly workbook 6401018.xlsx; index ref ≈ Sep-2025 = 100). Not an excise rate; not mixed with tobacco. Policy markers link to official pages in the chart tooltip.